
As 2006 comes to a close, I analyzed the data from Wal-Mart online retail this holiday season compared to last, and noticed a considerable increase year-to-year. Naysayer journalists have spoken to soon: we posted a 5 percent increase over last year’s season totals in a highly competitive industry (satellite radio). My thoughts immediately are about Sirius, their golden boy Howard Stern, and if Sirius Satellite Radio is close to viability?
Yes and No.
The “Howard Stern Effect” seems to have bolstered subscriber numbers significantly through the first two years of his contract, but Sirius has yet to turn a profit and everyone wonders how long before the red ink turns black. Subscriber acquisition costs have gone up, and Sirius is still on the hook for a significant portion of Howard’s paycheck. This all adds up to bad news for Sirius and Mel Karmazin who boasted of seeing black ink in 2006 but it now looks like 2007 may be a generous afterthought.
Higher acquisition costs, dwindling buzz, HD Radio and lowering hardware cost have all added to the growing pains of an industry still trying to gain a foothold. In the last 2 years, I have been on the frontlines and as my time there comes to a close, I am left with one big question when it comes to Sirius. What will the New Year bring?

